American Express Profitability Analysis

AXP Stock  USD 379.80  0.00  0.00%   
Based on American Express' profitability indicators, American Express may not be well positioned to generate adequate gross income at the present time. It has a very high chance of underperforming in February. Profitability indicators assess American Express' ability to earn profits and add value for shareholders.
 
Net Income  
First Reported
1985-09-30
Previous Quarter
2.9 B
Current Value
2.9 B
Quarterly Volatility
701.1 M
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
At this time, American Express' EV To Sales is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 01/05/2026, Operating Cash Flow Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 0.20, while Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 1.51. At this time, American Express' Operating Income is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 01/05/2026, Net Income is likely to grow to about 12.2 B, while Net Income From Continuing Ops is likely to drop slightly above 6.5 B. As of 01/05/2026, Gross Profit is likely to grow to about 73.4 B, while Pretax Profit Margin is likely to drop 0.13.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Gross Profit Margin0.680.74
Significantly Down
Pretty Stable
Net Profit Margin0.0880.12
Way Down
Very volatile
Operating Profit Margin0.130.16
Significantly Down
Pretty Stable
Pretax Profit Margin0.130.16
Significantly Down
Pretty Stable
Return On Assets0.0180.0336
Way Down
Pretty Stable
Return On Equity0.180.3
Way Down
Pretty Stable
For American Express profitability analysis, we use financial ratios and fundamental drivers that measure the ability of American Express to generate income relative to revenue, assets, operating costs, and current equity. These fundamental indicators attest to how well American Express utilizes its assets to generate profit and value for its shareholders. The profitability module also shows relationships between American Express's most relevant fundamental drivers. It provides multiple suggestions of what could affect the performance of American Express over time as well as its relative position and ranking within its peers.

American Express' Revenue Breakdown by Earning Segment

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To learn how to invest in American Stock, please use our How to Invest in American Express guide.The next projected EPS of American Express is estimated to be 3.57 with future projections ranging from a low of 3.81 to a high of 3.9025. American Express' most recent 12-month trailing earnings per share (EPS TTM) is at 14.87. Please be aware that the consensus of earnings estimates for American Express is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
American Express is projected to generate 3.57 in earnings per share on the 31st of December 2025. American Express earnings estimates show analyst consensus about projected American Express EPS (Earning Per Share). It derives the highest and the lowest estimates based on American Express' historical volatility. Many public companies, such as American Express, manage the perception of their earnings on a regular basis to make sure that analyst estimates are accurate. Future earnings calculations are also an essential input when attempting to value a firm.

American Express Revenue Breakdown by Earning Segment

By analyzing American Express' earnings estimates, investors can diagnose different trends across American Express' analyst sentiment over time as well as compare current estimates against different timeframes.
Is Consumer Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Express. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.186
Dividend Share
3.16
Earnings Share
14.87
Revenue Per Share
93.578
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.122
The market value of American Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Express is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

American Express Return On Asset vs. Return On Equity Fundamental Analysis

Comparative valuation techniques use various fundamental indicators to help in determining American Express's current stock value. Our valuation model uses many indicators to compare American Express value to that of its competitors to determine the firm's financial worth.
American Express is rated fourth in return on equity category among its peers. It is rated fifth in return on asset category among its peers reporting about  0.11  of Return On Asset per Return On Equity. The ratio of Return On Equity to Return On Asset for American Express is roughly  9.15 . At this time, American Express' Return On Equity is relatively stable compared to the past year. Comparative valuation analysis is a catch-all technique that is used if you cannot value American Express by discounting back its dividends or cash flows. It compares the stock's price multiples to nearest competition to determine if the stock is relatively undervalued or overvalued.

American Return On Asset vs. Return On Equity

Return on Equity or ROE tells company stockholders how effectually their money is being utilized or reinvested. It is a useful ratio when analyzing company profitability or the management effectiveness given the capital invested by the shareholders. ROE shows how efficiently a company utilizes investments to generate income.

American Express

Return On Equity

 = 

Net Income

Total Equity

 = 
0.34
For most industries, Return on Equity between 10% and 30% are considered desirable to provide dividends to owners and have funds for the future growth of the company. Investors should be very careful using ROE as the only efficiency indicator because ROE can be high if a company is heavily leveraged.
Return on Asset or ROA shows how effective is the management of the company in generating income from utilizing all of the assets at their disposal. It is a useful ratio to evaluate the performance of different departments of a company as well as to understand management performance over time.

American Express

Return On Asset

 = 

Net Income

Total Assets

 = 
0.0371
Return on Asset measures overall efficiency of a company in generating profits from its total assets. It is expressed as the percentage of profits earned per dollar of Asset. A low ROA typically means that a company is asset-intensive and therefore will needs more money to continue generating revenue in the future.

American Return On Asset Comparison

American Express is currently under evaluation in return on asset category among its peers.

American Express Profitability Projections

The most important aspect of a successful company is its ability to generate a profit. For investors in American Express, profitability is also one of the essential criteria for including it into their portfolios because, without profit, American Express will eventually generate negative long term returns. The profitability progress is the general direction of American Express' change in net profit over the period of time. It can combine multiple indicators of American Express, where stable trends show no significant progress. An accelerating trend is seen as positive, while a decreasing one is unfavorable. A rising trend means that profits are rising, and operational efficiency may be rising as well. A decreasing trend is a sign of poor performance and may indicate upcoming losses.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income-3.1 B-2.9 B
Operating Income14.8 B15.6 B
Net Income11.6 B12.2 B
Income Tax Expense3.2 B3.3 B
Income Before Tax14.8 B15.6 B
Total Other Income Expense Net-20.9 B-19.9 B
Net Income Applicable To Common Shares11.5 B12.1 B
Net Income From Continuing Ops11.6 B6.5 B
Net Interest Income17.9 B10.1 B
Interest Income27.4 B14 B
Change To Netincome2.3 B2.3 B
Net Income Per Share 12.79  13.42 
Income Quality 1.60  2.68 
Net Income Per E B T 0.71  0.58 

American Profitability Driver Comparison

Profitability drivers are factors that can directly affect your investment outlook on American Express. Investors often realize that things won't turn out the way they predict. There are maybe way too many unforeseen events and contingencies during the holding period of American Express position where the market behavior may be hard to predict, tax policy changes, gold or oil price hikes, calamities change, and many others. The question is, are you prepared for these unexpected events? Although some of these situations are obviously beyond your control, you can still follow the important profit indicators to know where you should focus on when things like this occur. Below are some of the American Express' important profitability drivers and their relationship over time.

American Express Profitability Trends

American Express profitability trend refers to the progression of profit or loss within a business. An upward trend means that American Express' profit has generally increased over time, and a downward profitability trend means profits are declining. Recognizing problems early in profitability trends allows investors to address revenue and cost issues in advance. Investors and analysts usually monitor three types of profitability trends: gross, operating, and net. Gross profit is the difference between revenue and costs of goods sold. Operating profit is American Express' gross profit minus its overhead. After you account for other unusual revenue, expenses, and costs, you get net profit. Gross profit trends are often a good indicator of future profitability. If you have high gross profit margins, you have a better chance to cover overhead and make money.

American Express Profitability Drivers Correlations

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize and read into endless financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties. Understanding the correlation between American Express different financial indicators related to revenue and profit generation helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards American Express in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between profit drivers that are directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to break down American Express' future profitability.

American Express Earnings Estimation Breakdown

The calculation of American Express' earning per share is based on the data from the past 12 consecutive months, used for reporting the company's financial figures. The next projected EPS of American Express is estimated to be 3.57 with the future projection ranging from a low of 3.81 to a high of 3.9025. Please be aware that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for American Express is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
Last Reported EPS
4.14
3.81
Lowest
Expected EPS
3.57
3.90
Highest

American Express Earnings Projection Consensus

Suppose the current estimates of American Express' value are higher than the current market price of the American Express stock. In this case, investors may conclude that American Express is overpriced and will exhibit bullish sentiment. On the other hand, if the present value is lower than the stock price, analysts may conclude that the market undervalues the equity. These scenarios may suggest that the market is not as efficient as it should be at the estimation time, and American Express' stock will quickly adjusts to the new information provided by the consensus estimate.
Number of AnalystsHistorical AccuracyLast Reported EPSEstimated EPS for 31st of December 2025Current EPS (TTM)
2993.29%
4.14
3.57
14.87

American Express Earnings History

Earnings estimate consensus by American Express analysts from Wall Street is used by the market to judge American Express' stock performance. Investors also use these earnings estimates to evaluate and project the stock performance into the future in order to make their investment decisions. However, we recommend analyzing not only American Express' upcoming profit reports and earnings-per-share forecasts but also comparing them to our different valuation methods.

American Express Quarterly Gross Profit

17.14 Billion

At this time, American Express' Retained Earnings are relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 01/05/2026, Earnings Yield is likely to grow to 0.07, while Retained Earnings Total Equity is likely to drop slightly above 10.7 B. As of 01/05/2026, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 956.7 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 12.1 B.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
369.84371.48373.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
335.46403.82405.46
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
356.86358.49360.13
Details
30 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
331.33364.10404.15
Details
Note that many institutional investors and large investment bankers can move markets due to the volume of American assets they manage. They also follow analysts to some degree and often drive overall investor sentiments towards American Express. With so many stockholders watching consensus numbers, the difference between actual and projected earnings is one of the most critical factors driving American Express' stock price in the short term.

American Express Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual

Actual Earning per Share of American Express refers to what the company shows during its earnings calls or quarterly reports. The Expected EPS is what analysts covering American Express predict the company's earnings will be in the future. The higher the earnings per share of American Express, the better is its profitability. While calculating the Earning per Share, we use the weighted ratio, as the number of shares outstanding can change over time.

American Express Estimated Months Earnings per Share

For an investor who is primarily interested in generating an income out of investing in entities such as American Express, the EPS ratio can tell if the company is intending to increase its current dividend. Although EPS is an essential tool for investors, it should not be used in isolation. EPS of American Express should always be considered in relation to other companies to make a more educated investment decision.

American Quarterly Analyst Estimates and Surprise Metrics

Earnings surprises can significantly impact American Express' stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate.
Reported
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
Surprise
2025-10-17
2025-09-3044.140.14
2025-07-18
2025-06-303.884.080.2
2025-04-17
2025-03-313.473.640.17
2025-01-24
2024-12-313.033.040.01
2024-10-18
2024-09-303.283.490.21
2024-07-19
2024-06-303.264.150.8927 
2024-04-19
2024-03-312.963.330.3712 
2024-01-26
2023-12-312.632.62-0.01
2023-10-20
2023-09-302.943.30.3612 
2023-07-21
2023-06-302.812.890.08
2023-04-20
2023-03-312.672.4-0.2710 
2023-01-27
2022-12-312.232.07-0.16
2022-10-21
2022-09-302.412.470.06
2022-07-22
2022-06-302.42.570.17
2022-04-22
2022-03-312.452.730.2811 
2022-01-25
2021-12-311.842.180.3418 
2021-10-22
2021-09-301.772.270.528 
2021-07-23
2021-06-301.632.81.1771 
2021-04-23
2021-03-311.612.741.1370 
2021-01-26
2020-12-311.291.760.4736 
2020-10-23
2020-09-301.351.3-0.05
2020-07-24
2020-06-30-0.060.290.35583 
2020-04-24
2020-03-311.530.41-1.1273 
2020-01-24
2019-12-312.012.030.02
2019-10-18
2019-09-302.032.080.05
2019-07-19
2019-06-302.032.070.04
2019-04-18
2019-03-311.991.8-0.19
2019-01-17
2018-12-311.82.320.5228 
2018-10-18
2018-09-301.771.880.11
2018-07-18
2018-06-301.821.840.02
2018-04-18
2018-03-311.721.860.14
2018-01-18
2017-12-31-1.23-1.41-0.1814 
2017-10-18
2017-09-301.471.50.03
2017-07-19
2017-06-301.431.470.04
2017-04-19
2017-03-311.261.340.08
2017-01-19
2016-12-310.990.88-0.1111 
2016-10-19
2016-09-300.981.20.2222 
2016-07-20
2016-06-301.892.10.2111 
2016-04-20
2016-03-311.351.450.1
2016-01-21
2015-12-311.120.89-0.2320 
2015-10-21
2015-09-301.311.24-0.07
2015-07-22
2015-06-301.321.420.1
2015-04-16
2015-03-311.371.480.11
2015-01-21
2014-12-311.381.390.01
2014-10-15
2014-09-301.361.40.04
2014-07-29
2014-06-301.381.430.05
2014-04-16
2014-03-311.31.330.03
2014-01-16
2013-12-311.251.21-0.04
2013-10-16
2013-09-301.231.250.02
2013-07-17
2013-06-301.231.270.04
2013-04-17
2013-03-311.131.150.02
2013-01-17
2012-12-310.560.560.0
2012-10-17
2012-09-301.091.090.0
2012-07-18
2012-06-301.11.150.05
2012-04-18
2012-03-3111.070.07
2012-01-19
2011-12-310.991.010.02
2011-10-19
2011-09-300.961.030.07
2011-07-20
2011-06-300.961.10.1414 
2011-04-20
2011-03-310.890.970.08
2011-01-24
2010-12-310.890.88-0.01
2010-10-21
2010-09-300.870.90.03
2010-07-22
2010-06-300.780.840.06
2010-04-22
2010-03-310.650.730.0812 
2010-01-21
2009-12-310.560.590.03
2009-10-22
2009-09-300.390.540.1538 
2009-07-23
2009-06-300.130.09-0.0430 
2009-04-23
2009-03-310.160.320.16100 
2009-01-26
2008-12-310.140.210.0750 
2008-10-20
2008-09-300.520.740.2242 
2008-07-21
2008-06-300.860.56-0.334 
2008-04-24
2008-03-310.780.840.06
2008-01-28
2007-12-310.70.710.01
2007-10-22
2007-09-300.850.90.05
2007-07-23
2007-06-300.860.880.02
2007-04-19
2007-03-310.80.880.0810 
2007-01-22
2006-12-310.770.770.0
2006-10-23
2006-09-300.760.780.02
2006-07-24
2006-06-300.740.780.04
2006-04-24
2006-03-310.690.70.01
2006-01-23
2005-12-310.590.60.01
2005-10-24
2005-09-300.720.69-0.03
2005-07-25
2005-06-300.780.810.03
2005-04-26
2005-03-310.760.75-0.01
2005-01-24
2004-12-310.70.710.01
2004-10-25
2004-09-300.70.69-0.01
2004-07-26
2004-06-300.670.680.01
2004-04-22
2004-03-310.620.660.04
2004-01-26
2003-12-310.590.60.01
2003-10-27
2003-09-300.580.590.01
2003-07-28
2003-06-300.570.590.02
2003-04-24
2003-03-310.520.530.01
2003-01-27
2002-12-310.510.520.01
2002-10-28
2002-09-300.510.520.01
2002-07-22
2002-06-300.50.510.01
2002-04-18
2002-03-310.430.460.03
2002-01-28
2001-12-310.230.22-0.01
2001-10-22
2001-09-300.30.22-0.0826 
2001-07-23
2001-06-300.130.130.0
2001-04-23
2001-03-310.390.40.01
2001-01-22
2000-12-310.50.50.0
2000-10-23
2000-09-300.540.540.0
2000-07-24
2000-06-300.530.540.01
2000-04-24
2000-03-310.470.480.01
2000-01-24
1999-12-310.440.440.0
1999-10-25
1999-09-300.470.470.0
1999-07-26
1999-06-300.470.470.0
1999-04-22
1999-03-310.410.430.02
1999-01-25
1998-12-310.390.390.0
1998-10-26
1998-09-300.420.420.0
1998-07-27
1998-06-300.410.420.01
1998-04-23
1998-03-310.360.370.01
1998-01-26
1997-12-310.340.350.01
1997-10-27
1997-09-300.360.370.01
1997-07-28
1997-06-300.350.360.01
1997-04-24
1997-03-310.310.310.0
1997-01-27
1996-12-310.30.30.0
1996-10-28
1996-09-300.320.320.0
1996-07-22
1996-06-300.310.310.0
1996-04-18
1996-03-310.270.270.0
1996-01-22
1995-12-310.260.260.0

Use American Express in pair-trading

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Express position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Express will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

American Express Pair Trading

American Express Pair Trading Analysis

The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Express could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Express when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Express - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Express to buy it.
The correlation of American Express is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Express moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Express moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Express can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Use Investing Themes to Complement your American Express position

In addition to having American Express in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Companies involved in production of silicon and other synthetic products . The Synthetics theme has 20 constituents at this time.
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Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis

When running American Express' price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.