Aflac Incorporated Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AFL Stock | USD 110.51 1.59 1.46% |
Aflac Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Aflac Incorporated's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aflac Incorporated's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aflac Incorporated fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength indicator of Aflac Incorporated's share price is at 54. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aflac Incorporated, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.709 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.619 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.3132 | Wall Street Target Price 110.6923 |
Using Aflac Incorporated hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aflac Incorporated from the perspective of Aflac Incorporated response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aflac Incorporated using Aflac Incorporated's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aflac using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aflac Incorporated's stock price.
Aflac Incorporated Short Interest
An investor who is long Aflac Incorporated may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Aflac Incorporated and may potentially protect profits, hedge Aflac Incorporated with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 107.0414 | Short Percent 0.0139 | Short Ratio 3.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.5 M | 50 Day MA 109.8916 |
Aflac Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aflac Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 110.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.50.Aflac Incorporated Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aflac Incorporated's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aflac. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aflac can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aflac Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aflac Incorporated's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aflac Incorporated.
Aflac Incorporated Implied Volatility | 0.48 |
Aflac Incorporated's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aflac Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aflac Incorporated's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aflac Incorporated stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aflac Incorporated's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aflac Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 110.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.50. Aflac Incorporated after-hype prediction price | USD 110.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aflac Incorporated to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aflac contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aflac Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.03% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Aflac Incorporated trading at USD 110.51, that is roughly USD 0.0332 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aflac Incorporated's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aflac Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Aflac Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aflac Incorporated's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aflac Incorporated's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aflac Incorporated stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aflac Incorporated's open interest, investors have to compare it to Aflac Incorporated's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aflac Incorporated is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aflac. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aflac Incorporated Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aflac price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aflac using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aflac charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aflac Incorporated Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aflac Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 110.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94, mean absolute percentage error of 1.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aflac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aflac Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aflac Incorporated Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aflac Incorporated | Aflac Incorporated Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aflac Incorporated Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aflac Incorporated's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aflac Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 109.54 and 111.48, respectively. We have considered Aflac Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aflac Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aflac Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8146 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0731 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9407 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0085 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.5 |
Predictive Modules for Aflac Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aflac Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aflac Incorporated After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aflac Incorporated at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aflac Incorporated or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aflac Incorporated, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aflac Incorporated Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aflac Incorporated's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aflac Incorporated's historical news coverage. Aflac Incorporated's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 109.48 and 111.42, respectively. We have considered Aflac Incorporated's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aflac Incorporated is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aflac Incorporated is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aflac Incorporated Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aflac Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aflac Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aflac Incorporated, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 0.97 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
110.51 | 110.45 | 0.05 |
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Aflac Incorporated Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Aflac Incorporated is traded for 110.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Aflac is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 110.45. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 105.43%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Aflac Incorporated is about 867.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 110.52. About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.99. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aflac Incorporated has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.93. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.61. The firm last dividend was issued on the 18th of February 2026. Aflac Incorporated had 2:1 split on the 19th of March 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aflac Incorporated to cross-verify your projections.Aflac Incorporated Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aflac Incorporated's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aflac Incorporated's future price movements. Getting to know how Aflac Incorporated's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aflac Incorporated may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PRU | Prudential Financial | (3.00) | 9 per month | 1.17 | 0.06 | 2.02 | (1.43) | 7.14 | |
| LNC | Lincoln National | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.74 | 0.02 | 2.74 | (3.34) | 8.21 | |
| BHF | Brighthouse Financial | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.71 | 0.11 | 0.67 | (1.28) | 31.02 | |
| UNM | Unum Group | 1.38 | 4 per month | 0.98 | (0.03) | 1.99 | (1.82) | 10.27 | |
| MET | MetLife | 2.00 | 9 per month | 1.33 | (0.03) | 2.57 | (1.58) | 7.07 | |
| MFC | Manulife Financial Corp | (0.42) | 8 per month | 0.68 | 0.20 | 2.00 | (1.61) | 4.84 | |
| PRI | Primerica | 0.60 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.53 | (1.89) | 4.19 | |
| CNO | CNO Financial Group | (0.13) | 7 per month | 1.18 | 0.01 | 2.09 | (1.93) | 7.94 | |
| PUK | Prudential PLC ADR | 0.27 | 11 per month | 0.79 | 0.21 | 1.93 | (1.64) | 5.33 | |
| FG | FG Annuities Life | 0.61 | 11 per month | 2.14 | (0.02) | 3.09 | (3.36) | 11.40 | |
| JXN | Jackson Financial | 0.06 | 10 per month | 1.67 | 0.13 | 2.64 | (2.37) | 9.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aflac Incorporated
For every potential investor in Aflac, whether a beginner or expert, Aflac Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aflac Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aflac. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aflac Incorporated's price trends.Aflac Incorporated Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aflac Incorporated stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aflac Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aflac Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aflac Incorporated Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aflac Incorporated stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aflac Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aflac Incorporated stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aflac Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aflac Incorporated Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aflac Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aflac Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aflac stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.749 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7324 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9606 | |||
| Variance | 0.9228 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6479 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5364 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aflac Incorporated
The number of cover stories for Aflac Incorporated depends on current market conditions and Aflac Incorporated's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aflac Incorporated is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aflac Incorporated's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aflac Incorporated Short Properties
Aflac Incorporated's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aflac Incorporated's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aflac Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aflac Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aflac Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 565 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 71.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aflac Incorporated to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Aflac Stock please use our How to buy in Aflac Stock guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Life & Health Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aflac Incorporated. If investors know Aflac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Aflac Incorporated assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | Dividend Share 2.24 | Earnings Share 7.61 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.607 |
Investors evaluate Aflac Incorporated using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Aflac Incorporated's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Aflac Incorporated's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Aflac Incorporated's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Aflac Incorporated represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Aflac Incorporated's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.