Allegheny Technologies Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| ATI Stock | USD 126.59 6.29 5.23% |
Allegheny Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Allegheny Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Allegheny Technologies' stock price is under 66. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 3rd of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Allegheny, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.362 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8348 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.183 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.8786 | Wall Street Target Price 133 |
Using Allegheny Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated from the perspective of Allegheny Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Allegheny Technologies using Allegheny Technologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Allegheny using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Allegheny Technologies' stock price.
Allegheny Technologies Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Allegheny Technologies' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Allegheny. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Allegheny Technologies stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 88.2178 | Short Percent 0.0226 | Short Ratio 1.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.1 M | 50 Day MA 112.3162 |
Allegheny Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 126.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.08.Allegheny Technologies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Allegheny Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Allegheny. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Allegheny can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Allegheny Technologies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Allegheny Technologies.
Allegheny Technologies Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
Allegheny Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Allegheny Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Allegheny Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Allegheny Technologies' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 126.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.08. Allegheny Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 126.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Allegheny contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Allegheny Technologies Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Allegheny Technologies trading at USD 126.59, that is roughly USD 0.0483 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Allegheny Technologies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Allegheny Technologies Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Allegheny Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Allegheny Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Allegheny Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Allegheny Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Allegheny Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Allegheny Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Allegheny Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Allegheny. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Allegheny Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allegheny price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allegheny using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allegheny charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allegheny Technologies Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 126.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59, mean absolute percentage error of 4.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allegheny Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allegheny Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allegheny Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allegheny Technologies | Allegheny Technologies Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Allegheny Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allegheny Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allegheny Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 124.88 and 128.30, respectively. We have considered Allegheny Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegheny Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegheny Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0414 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.77 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5946 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 94.08 |
Predictive Modules for Allegheny Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegheny Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allegheny Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Allegheny Technologies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Allegheny Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allegheny Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allegheny Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Allegheny Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Allegheny Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allegheny Technologies' historical news coverage. Allegheny Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 124.82 and 128.24, respectively. We have considered Allegheny Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Allegheny Technologies is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allegheny Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Allegheny Technologies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Allegheny Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allegheny Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allegheny Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 1.71 | 0.06 | 0.59 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
126.59 | 126.53 | 0.05 |
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Allegheny Technologies Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Allegheny Technologies is traded for 126.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.59. Allegheny is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 126.53. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Allegheny Technologies is about 132.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 126.00. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.2. Allegheny Technologies last dividend was issued on the 16th of August 2016. The entity had 1:2 split on the 30th of November 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegheny Technologies to cross-verify your projections.Allegheny Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Allegheny Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allegheny Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Allegheny Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allegheny Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRS | Carpenter Technology | (5.25) | 10 per month | 2.45 | (0.01) | 4.36 | (4.98) | 13.86 | |
| MLI | Mueller Industries | 0.87 | 7 per month | 0.79 | 0.31 | 2.11 | (1.65) | 4.16 | |
| GGG | Graco Inc | (0.14) | 6 per month | 1.11 | 0.04 | 2.46 | (1.86) | 6.74 | |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings | (3.35) | 7 per month | 1.53 | 0.08 | 2.53 | (2.84) | 7.77 | |
| RBC | RBC Bearings Incorporated | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.79 | 0.20 | 3.01 | (1.75) | 8.53 | |
| NDSN | Nordson | 5.14 | 7 per month | 0.71 | 0.16 | 2.33 | (1.31) | 4.63 | |
| WSO | Watsco Inc | (9.38) | 9 per month | 1.36 | 0.05 | 4.05 | (2.21) | 7.55 | |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corp | (1.27) | 10 per month | 1.05 | 0.02 | 2.52 | (1.68) | 6.45 | |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | 1.04 | 10 per month | 0.73 | 0.16 | 2.68 | (1.79) | 6.54 | |
| ITT | ITT Inc | (0.56) | 7 per month | 1.77 | 0.02 | 2.20 | (2.11) | 17.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Allegheny Technologies
For every potential investor in Allegheny, whether a beginner or expert, Allegheny Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegheny Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegheny. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegheny Technologies' price trends.Allegheny Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allegheny Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allegheny Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allegheny Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allegheny Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allegheny Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allegheny Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allegheny Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allegheny Technologies Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Allegheny Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allegheny Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allegheny Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allegheny stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9184 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8435 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Allegheny Technologies
The number of cover stories for Allegheny Technologies depends on current market conditions and Allegheny Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allegheny Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allegheny Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Allegheny Technologies Short Properties
Allegheny Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Allegheny Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Allegheny Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allegheny Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 146.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 721.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegheny Technologies to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is there potential for Metals & Mining market expansion? Will Allegheny introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allegheny Technologies. If investors know Allegheny will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Allegheny Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.362 | Earnings Share 3.11 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.071 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Allegheny Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allegheny that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allegheny Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allegheny Technologies' true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Allegheny Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allegheny Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Allegheny Technologies' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Allegheny Technologies represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Allegheny Technologies' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.