Allegheny Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ATI Stock | USD 120.86 0.96 0.80% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 115.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.36. Allegheny Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Allegheny Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Allegheny Technologies' share price is above 70 as of 6th of January 2026. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Allegheny, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.362 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8348 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.1867 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.8742 | Wall Street Target Price 121.25 |
Using Allegheny Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated from the perspective of Allegheny Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Allegheny Technologies using Allegheny Technologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Allegheny using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Allegheny Technologies' stock price.
Allegheny Technologies Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Allegheny Technologies' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Allegheny. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Allegheny Technologies stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 81.3075 | Short Percent 0.0308 | Short Ratio 2.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 102.354 |
Allegheny Technologies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Allegheny Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Allegheny. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Allegheny can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Allegheny Technologies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Allegheny Technologies.
Allegheny Technologies Implied Volatility | 0.6 |
Allegheny Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Allegheny Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Allegheny Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Allegheny Technologies' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 115.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.36. Allegheny Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 121.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Allegheny Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Allegheny Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Allegheny Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Allegheny Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Allegheny Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Allegheny Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Allegheny Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Allegheny. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Allegheny Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allegheny price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allegheny using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allegheny charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allegheny Technologies Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Allegheny Technologies' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1996-03-31 | Previous Quarter 319.6 M | Current Value 372.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 236.3 M |
Allegheny Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 115.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.94, mean absolute percentage error of 6.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allegheny Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allegheny Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allegheny Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allegheny Technologies | Allegheny Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Allegheny Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allegheny Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allegheny Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 112.87 and 117.67, respectively. We have considered Allegheny Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegheny Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegheny Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0457 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9404 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 118.3615 |
Predictive Modules for Allegheny Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegheny Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allegheny Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Allegheny Technologies
For every potential investor in Allegheny, whether a beginner or expert, Allegheny Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegheny Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegheny. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegheny Technologies' price trends.Allegheny Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allegheny Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allegheny Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allegheny Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allegheny Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allegheny Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allegheny Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allegheny Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allegheny Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allegheny Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allegheny Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allegheny Technologies Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 87592.55 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1853 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 118.83 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 119.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.51 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.96 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 71.82 |
Allegheny Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allegheny Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allegheny Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allegheny stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Variance | 5.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Allegheny Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Allegheny Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Allegheny Technologies Incorporated Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegheny Technologies to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allegheny Technologies. If investors know Allegheny will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allegheny Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.362 | Earnings Share 3.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.071 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Allegheny Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allegheny that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allegheny Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allegheny Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allegheny Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allegheny Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allegheny Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allegheny Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allegheny Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.