Citizens Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CIA Stock | USD 5.55 0.09 1.65% |
Citizens Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Citizens stock prices and determine the direction of Citizens's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Citizens' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of Citizens' share price is at 51 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Citizens, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.09 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.22 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3 | Wall Street Target Price 6 |
Using Citizens hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citizens from the perspective of Citizens response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Citizens using Citizens' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Citizens using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Citizens' stock price.
Citizens Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Citizens' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Citizens. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Citizens stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 4.7862 | Short Percent 0.082 | Short Ratio 41.85 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.4 M | 50 Day MA 5.3316 |
Citizens Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citizens on the next trading day is expected to be 5.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.36.Citizens Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Citizens' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Citizens. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Citizens can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Citizens. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Citizens' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Citizens.
Citizens Implied Volatility | 1.48 |
Citizens' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Citizens stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Citizens' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Citizens stock will not fluctuate a lot when Citizens' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citizens on the next trading day is expected to be 5.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.36. Citizens after-hype prediction price | USD 5.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Citizens Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Citizens' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Citizens' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Citizens stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Citizens' open interest, investors have to compare it to Citizens' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Citizens is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Citizens. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Citizens Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Citizens price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citizens using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citizens charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Citizens Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citizens on the next trading day is expected to be 5.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citizens Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citizens' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Citizens Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Citizens | Citizens Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Citizens Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Citizens' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citizens' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.90 and 9.23, respectively. We have considered Citizens' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citizens stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citizens stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0265 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1756 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0328 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.3587 |
Predictive Modules for Citizens
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citizens. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citizens After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Citizens at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citizens or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Citizens, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Citizens Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Citizens' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Citizens' historical news coverage. Citizens' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.88 and 9.22, respectively. We have considered Citizens' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Citizens is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Citizens is based on 3 months time horizon.
Citizens Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Citizens is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citizens backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citizens, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 3.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.55 | 5.55 | 0.00 |
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Citizens Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Citizens is traded for 5.55. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Citizens is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Citizens is about 1239.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.55. About 26.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.24. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Citizens had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 107:100 split on the 13th of December 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens to cross-verify your projections.Citizens Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Citizens' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citizens' future price movements. Getting to know how Citizens' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citizens may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NODK | NI Holdings | (1.87) | 19 per month | 1.26 | (0.01) | 2.39 | (1.91) | 8.84 | |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 | (1.41) | 10 per month | 4.04 | 0.09 | 13.50 | (8.07) | 28.19 | |
| CZNC | Citizens Northern Corp | (0.18) | 10 per month | 1.16 | 0.14 | 3.20 | (1.71) | 7.41 | |
| WSBF | Waterstone Financial | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.14 | 2.59 | (2.52) | 8.13 | |
| FSBW | FS Bancorp | 1.43 | 5 per month | 1.23 | 0.05 | 3.96 | (2.12) | 12.80 | |
| GRAF | Graf Global Corp | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.28 | (0.08) | 0.47 | (0.47) | 2.60 | |
| LEGT | Legato Merger Corp | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.56 | (0.05) | 0.47 | (0.55) | 4.86 | |
| LPAA | Launch One Acquisition | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 0.28 | (0.19) | 0.76 | |
| PLBC | Plumas Bancorp | (0.48) | 20 per month | 0.67 | 0.16 | 3.00 | (1.66) | 11.73 | |
| ETHZ | ETHZilla | (0.56) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 8.13 | (12.25) | 29.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Citizens
For every potential investor in Citizens, whether a beginner or expert, Citizens' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citizens Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citizens. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citizens' price trends.Citizens Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citizens stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citizens could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citizens by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Citizens Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citizens stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citizens shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citizens stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Citizens entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Citizens Risk Indicators
The analysis of Citizens' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citizens' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting citizens stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.63 | |||
| Variance | 13.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.06 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Citizens
The number of cover stories for Citizens depends on current market conditions and Citizens' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Citizens is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Citizens' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Citizens Short Properties
Citizens' future price predictability will typically decrease when Citizens' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Citizens often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Citizens' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Citizens' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Citizens Stock refer to our How to Trade Citizens Stock guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Life & Health Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Citizens. Projected growth potential of Citizens fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Citizens assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Earnings Share 0.21 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.017 | Return On Assets |
Citizens's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Citizens's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Citizens' intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Citizens' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Citizens' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Citizens should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Citizens' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.