Essent Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ESNT Stock | USD 65.28 0.05 0.08% |
Essent Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Essent's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.012 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.7644 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.0286 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.3321 | Wall Street Target Price 68.625 |
Using Essent hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Essent Group from the perspective of Essent response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Essent using Essent's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Essent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Essent's stock price.
Essent Short Interest
An investor who is long Essent may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Essent and may potentially protect profits, hedge Essent with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 60.8846 | Short Percent 0.0251 | Short Ratio 2.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.8 M | 50 Day MA 63.4972 |
Essent Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Essent Group on the next trading day is expected to be 64.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.11.Essent Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Essent's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Essent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Essent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Essent Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Essent's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Essent.
Essent Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
Essent's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Essent Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Essent's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Essent stock will not fluctuate a lot when Essent's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Essent Group on the next trading day is expected to be 64.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.11. Essent after-hype prediction price | USD 64.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Essent to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Essent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Essent Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Essent trading at USD 65.28, that is roughly USD 0.0249 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Essent's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Essent Group options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Essent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Essent's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Essent's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Essent stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Essent's open interest, investors have to compare it to Essent's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Essent is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Essent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Essent Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Essent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Essent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Essent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Essent Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Essent Group on the next trading day is expected to be 64.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.58, mean absolute percentage error of 3.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Essent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Essent's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Essent Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Essent | Essent Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Essent Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Essent's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Essent's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 62.69 and 65.46, respectively. We have considered Essent's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Essent stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Essent stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3529 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5756 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0249 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 96.1127 |
Predictive Modules for Essent
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essent Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Essent After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Essent at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Essent or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Essent, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Essent Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Essent's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Essent's historical news coverage. Essent's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.56 and 66.34, respectively. We have considered Essent's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Essent is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Essent Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Essent Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Essent is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Essent backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Essent, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.39 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
65.28 | 64.95 | 0.51 |
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Essent Hype Timeline
Essent Group is currently traded for 65.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Essent is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 64.95. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 41.62%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.51%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Essent is about 5560.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 65.28. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Essent Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.84. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.88. The firm last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Essent to cross-verify your projections.Essent Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Essent's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Essent's future price movements. Getting to know how Essent's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Essent may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corp | 0.56 | 7 per month | 2.02 | (0.05) | 2.19 | (2.27) | 12.13 | |
| ACT | Enact Holdings | 0.19 | 10 per month | 1.07 | 0.12 | 2.19 | (2.20) | 9.00 | |
| FAF | First American | 1.95 | 12 per month | 1.30 | 0.04 | 2.60 | (2.37) | 5.88 | |
| RDN | Radian Group | (2.28) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.29 | (2.12) | 10.62 | |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance | (1.12) | 9 per month | 1.25 | (0.03) | 1.71 | (2.02) | 6.34 | |
| SNV | Sinovus Mining | (0.43) | 1 per month | 1.99 | (0.02) | 2.93 | (2.49) | 9.63 | |
| EQH | Axa Equitable Holdings | (0.41) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.67 | (3.12) | 7.60 | |
| VLY | Valley National Bancorp | 0.40 | 7 per month | 1.16 | 0.17 | 3.26 | (2.20) | 8.87 | |
| SLM | SLM Corp | 0.45 | 8 per month | 3.36 | (0.02) | 3.45 | (3.17) | 20.19 | |
| ACGL | Arch Capital Group | 0.94 | 12 per month | 0.71 | 0.15 | 1.92 | (1.25) | 4.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Essent
For every potential investor in Essent, whether a beginner or expert, Essent's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Essent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Essent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Essent's price trends.Essent Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Essent stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Essent could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Essent by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Essent Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Essent stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Essent shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Essent stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Essent Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Essent Risk Indicators
The analysis of Essent's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Essent's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting essent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9908 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Essent
The number of cover stories for Essent depends on current market conditions and Essent's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Essent is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Essent's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Essent Short Properties
Essent's future price predictability will typically decrease when Essent's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Essent Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Essent's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Essent's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 106.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6 B |
Additional Tools for Essent Stock Analysis
When running Essent's price analysis, check to measure Essent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Essent is operating at the current time. Most of Essent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Essent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Essent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Essent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.