FVCBankcorp Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| FVCB Stock | USD 14.90 0.43 2.80% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of FVCBankcorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.11. FVCBankcorp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast FVCBankcorp stock prices and determine the direction of FVCBankcorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FVCBankcorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of FVCBankcorp's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using FVCBankcorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FVCBankcorp from the perspective of FVCBankcorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of FVCBankcorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.11. FVCBankcorp after-hype prediction price | USD 15.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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FVCBankcorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FVCBankcorp price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FVCBankcorp using various technical indicators. When you analyze FVCBankcorp charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FVCBankcorp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of FVCBankcorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FVCBankcorp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FVCBankcorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FVCBankcorp Stock Forecast Pattern
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FVCBankcorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FVCBankcorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FVCBankcorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.01 and 16.25, respectively. We have considered FVCBankcorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FVCBankcorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FVCBankcorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7044 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2313 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.1082 |
Predictive Modules for FVCBankcorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FVCBankcorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FVCBankcorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FVCBankcorp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FVCBankcorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FVCBankcorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FVCBankcorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FVCBankcorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FVCBankcorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FVCBankcorp's historical news coverage. FVCBankcorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.74 and 16.88, respectively. We have considered FVCBankcorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FVCBankcorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FVCBankcorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
FVCBankcorp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FVCBankcorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FVCBankcorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FVCBankcorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.90 | 15.31 | 0.13 |
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FVCBankcorp Hype Timeline
FVCBankcorp is currently traded for 14.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. FVCBankcorp is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 15.31. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on FVCBankcorp is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.90. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.02. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. FVCBankcorp last dividend was issued on the 26th of January 2026. The entity had 125:100 split on the 1st of February 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FVCBankcorp to cross-verify your projections.FVCBankcorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FVCBankcorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FVCBankcorp's future price movements. Getting to know how FVCBankcorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FVCBankcorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CFFI | CF Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.76 | 0 | 3.49 | (2.75) | 8.22 | |
| LCNB | LCNB Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.34 | 0.08 | 2.81 | (2.13) | 8.02 | |
| FUNC | First United | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.87 | (0.02) | 2.92 | (2.74) | 7.69 | |
| VABK | Virginia National Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.54 | (0.02) | 3.27 | (2.28) | 7.94 | |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.73 | 0.12 | 2.68 | (1.54) | 5.37 | |
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.28 | 0.03 | 2.88 | (4.01) | 12.58 | |
| FCCO | First Community | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.12 | 0.02 | 2.21 | (2.29) | 5.69 | |
| BPRN | Bank Of Princeton | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.16 | 3.27 | (2.68) | 9.93 | |
| CBNA | Chain Bridge Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.06 | 0.06 | 3.33 | (4.04) | 10.70 | |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | 0.02 | 2.53 | (1.96) | 7.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for FVCBankcorp
For every potential investor in FVCBankcorp, whether a beginner or expert, FVCBankcorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FVCBankcorp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FVCBankcorp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FVCBankcorp's price trends.FVCBankcorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FVCBankcorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FVCBankcorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FVCBankcorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FVCBankcorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FVCBankcorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FVCBankcorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FVCBankcorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FVCBankcorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1327.71 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.78) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.44) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.43) |
FVCBankcorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of FVCBankcorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FVCBankcorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fvcbankcorp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9956 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Variance | 2.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9913 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FVCBankcorp
The number of cover stories for FVCBankcorp depends on current market conditions and FVCBankcorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FVCBankcorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FVCBankcorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FVCBankcorp Short Properties
FVCBankcorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when FVCBankcorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FVCBankcorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FVCBankcorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FVCBankcorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 159.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FVCBankcorp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade FVCBankcorp Stock refer to our How to Trade FVCBankcorp Stock guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FVCBankcorp. If investors know FVCBankcorp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FVCBankcorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of FVCBankcorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FVCBankcorp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FVCBankcorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FVCBankcorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FVCBankcorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FVCBankcorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FVCBankcorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FVCBankcorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FVCBankcorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.