NorthWestern Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NWE Stock | USD 66.50 0.94 1.39% |
NorthWestern Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NorthWestern stock prices and determine the direction of NorthWestern's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NorthWestern's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of NorthWestern's share price is at 55. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling NorthWestern, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2154 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.5971 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.8449 | Wall Street Target Price 62.6 |
Using NorthWestern hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NorthWestern from the perspective of NorthWestern response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NorthWestern using NorthWestern's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NorthWestern using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NorthWestern's stock price.
NorthWestern Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in NorthWestern's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards NorthWestern. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of NorthWestern stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 58.7466 | Short Percent 0.0516 | Short Ratio 4.58 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 66.1772 |
NorthWestern Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NorthWestern on the next trading day is expected to be 65.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.72.NorthWestern Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to NorthWestern's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NorthWestern. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NorthWestern can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NorthWestern. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of NorthWestern's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about NorthWestern.
NorthWestern Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
NorthWestern's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NorthWestern stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NorthWestern's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NorthWestern stock will not fluctuate a lot when NorthWestern's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NorthWestern on the next trading day is expected to be 65.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.72. NorthWestern after-hype prediction price | USD 66.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NorthWestern | Build AI portfolio with NorthWestern Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current NorthWestern contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that NorthWestern will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.035% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With NorthWestern trading at USD 66.5, that is roughly USD 0.0233 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating NorthWestern's daily price movement you should consider acquiring NorthWestern options at the current volatility level of 0.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 NorthWestern Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NorthWestern's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in NorthWestern's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for NorthWestern stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NorthWestern's open interest, investors have to compare it to NorthWestern's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NorthWestern is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NorthWestern. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
NorthWestern Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NorthWestern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NorthWestern using various technical indicators. When you analyze NorthWestern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NorthWestern Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the NorthWestern's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 2.9 M | Current Value 6.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 1.5 B |
NorthWestern Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NorthWestern on the next trading day is expected to be 65.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82, mean absolute percentage error of 1.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NorthWestern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NorthWestern's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NorthWestern Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NorthWestern | NorthWestern Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NorthWestern Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NorthWestern's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NorthWestern's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.16 and 66.80, respectively. We have considered NorthWestern's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NorthWestern stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NorthWestern stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1166 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8151 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 49.7226 |
Predictive Modules for NorthWestern
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NorthWestern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NorthWestern's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NorthWestern After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NorthWestern at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NorthWestern or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NorthWestern, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NorthWestern Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NorthWestern's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NorthWestern's historical news coverage. NorthWestern's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 65.19 and 67.81, respectively. We have considered NorthWestern's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NorthWestern is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NorthWestern is based on 3 months time horizon.
NorthWestern Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NorthWestern is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NorthWestern backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NorthWestern, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.32 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 13 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
66.50 | 66.50 | 0.00 |
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NorthWestern Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January NorthWestern is traded for 66.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. NorthWestern is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 97.06%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on NorthWestern is about 1233.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 66.52. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.44. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. NorthWestern has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.46. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The firm had 1:1 split on the 2nd of October 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NorthWestern to cross-verify your projections.NorthWestern Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NorthWestern's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NorthWestern's future price movements. Getting to know how NorthWestern's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NorthWestern may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ALE | Allete Inc | 0.05 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.73 | (0.21) | 2.98 | |
| BKH | Black Hills | 2.34 | 11 per month | 1.14 | 0.07 | 2.01 | (2.07) | 7.24 | |
| OTTR | Otter Tail | (1.67) | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.07 | 2.02 | (1.87) | 7.91 | |
| AVA | Avista | (0.14) | 12 per month | 1.02 | 0.01 | 1.71 | (1.74) | 5.72 | |
| MGEE | MGE Energy | (1.45) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.41 | (1.90) | 4.52 | |
| EE | Excelerate Energy | 0.50 | 8 per month | 1.63 | 0.22 | 3.54 | (2.93) | 10.67 | |
| SR | Spire Inc | (0.33) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.56 | (2.11) | 4.16 | |
| ELPC | Companhia Paranaense de | 0.19 | 9 per month | 2.82 | 0.07 | 4.74 | (4.17) | 13.36 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | 1.64 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.99 | (2.41) | 5.00 | |
| DTG | DTE Energy | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.81 | (0.81) | 2.35 |
Other Forecasting Options for NorthWestern
For every potential investor in NorthWestern, whether a beginner or expert, NorthWestern's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NorthWestern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NorthWestern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NorthWestern's price trends.NorthWestern Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NorthWestern stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NorthWestern could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NorthWestern by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NorthWestern Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NorthWestern stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NorthWestern shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NorthWestern stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NorthWestern entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 66.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 66.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.47) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.94) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 55.62 |
NorthWestern Risk Indicators
The analysis of NorthWestern's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NorthWestern's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northwestern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Variance | 1.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NorthWestern
The number of cover stories for NorthWestern depends on current market conditions and NorthWestern's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NorthWestern is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NorthWestern's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NorthWestern Short Properties
NorthWestern's future price predictability will typically decrease when NorthWestern's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NorthWestern often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NorthWestern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NorthWestern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NorthWestern to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade NorthWestern Stock refer to our How to Trade NorthWestern Stock guide.You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Will Multi-Utilities sector continue expanding? Could NorthWestern diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NorthWestern. Anticipated expansion of NorthWestern directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every NorthWestern data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Dividend Share 2.63 | Earnings Share 3.53 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.121 |
Investors evaluate NorthWestern using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating NorthWestern's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause NorthWestern's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between NorthWestern's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding NorthWestern should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, NorthWestern's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.