Triumph Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TGI Stock | USD 19.39 0.44 2.32% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Group on the next trading day is expected to be 20.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.58. Triumph Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Triumph's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Triumph |
Triumph Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Triumph's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1995-03-31 | Previous Quarter 152.6 M | Current Value 104.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 105.7 M |
Triumph Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Group on the next trading day is expected to be 20.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Triumph Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Triumph's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Triumph Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Triumph | Triumph Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Triumph Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Triumph's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Triumph's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.86 and 24.43, respectively. We have considered Triumph's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triumph stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triumph stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5064 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6222 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0432 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.5771 |
Predictive Modules for Triumph
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triumph Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Triumph
For every potential investor in Triumph, whether a beginner or expert, Triumph's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Triumph Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Triumph. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Triumph's price trends.Triumph Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Triumph stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Triumph could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Triumph by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Triumph Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Triumph's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Triumph's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Triumph Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Triumph stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Triumph shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Triumph stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Triumph Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 22272.72 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6667 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.09 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.52 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.44 |
Triumph Risk Indicators
The analysis of Triumph's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Triumph's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting triumph stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.2 | |||
| Variance | 17.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Triumph Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Triumph's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Triumph Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Triumph Group Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triumph to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triumph. If investors know Triumph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triumph listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Earnings Share (0.16) | Revenue Per Share 15.722 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 | Return On Assets 0.0498 |
The market value of Triumph Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triumph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triumph's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triumph's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triumph's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triumph's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triumph's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triumph is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triumph's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.