Old Second Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.24
| OSBC Stock | USD 18.71 0.20 1.08% |
Old |
Old Second Target Price Odds to finish below 15.24
The tendency of Old Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.24 or more in 90 days |
| 18.71 | 90 days | 15.24 | about 10.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Second to drop to $ 15.24 or more in 90 days from now is about 10.14 (This Old Second Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Old Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Old Second Bancorp price to stay between $ 15.24 and its current price of $18.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.17 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.85 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Old Second will likely underperform. Additionally Old Second Bancorp has an alpha of 0.0369, implying that it can generate a 0.0369 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Old Second Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Old Second
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Old Second Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Old Second Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Old Second is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Old Second's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Old Second Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Old Second within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.85 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Old Second Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Old Second for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Old Second Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Old Second Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 4th of November 2024 Old Second paid $ 0.06 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: OSBC Price-to-Operating-Cash-Flow 6.07 - GuruFocus.com |
Old Second Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Old Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Old Second's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old Second's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Old Second Technical Analysis
Old Second's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Old Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Old Second Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Old Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Old Second Predictive Forecast Models
Old Second's time-series forecasting models is one of many Old Second's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Old Second's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Old Second Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Old Second for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Old Second Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Old Second Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 4th of November 2024 Old Second paid $ 0.06 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: OSBC Price-to-Operating-Cash-Flow 6.07 - GuruFocus.com |
Check out Old Second Backtesting, Old Second Valuation, Old Second Correlation, Old Second Hype Analysis, Old Second Volatility, Old Second History as well as Old Second Performance. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Second. If investors know Old will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old Second listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 1.85 | Revenue Per Share 5.896 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Old Second Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old Second's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old Second's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old Second's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old Second's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old Second's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Old Second is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old Second's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.