Old Second Stock Forward View
| OSBC Stock | USD 21.04 0.38 1.84% |
Old Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Old Second stock prices and determine the direction of Old Second Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Old Second's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Old Second's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Old Second hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Old Second Bancorp from the perspective of Old Second response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Old Second Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.86. Old Second after-hype prediction price | USD 21.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Second to cross-verify your projections. Old Second Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Old price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Old using various technical indicators. When you analyze Old charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Old Second Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Old Second Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Old Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Old Second's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Old Second Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Old Second | Old Second Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Old Second Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Old Second's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Old Second's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.60 and 22.29, respectively. We have considered Old Second's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Old Second stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Old Second stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4266 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.342 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.8648 |
Predictive Modules for Old Second
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Old Second Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Old Second After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Old Second at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Old Second or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Old Second, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Old Second Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Old Second's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Old Second's historical news coverage. Old Second's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.41 and 23.09, respectively. We have considered Old Second's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Old Second is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Old Second Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Old Second Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Old Second is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old Second backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old Second, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.04 | 21.25 | 1.14 |
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Old Second Hype Timeline
Old Second Bancorp is now traded for 21.04. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Old is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 21.25 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.14%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Old Second is about 1541.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.07. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 396.97 M. Net Income was 85.26 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 311.34 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Second to cross-verify your projections.Old Second Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Old Second's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Old Second's future price movements. Getting to know how Old Second's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Old Second may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TMP | Tompkins Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.16 | 3.68 | (2.18) | 10.36 | |
| FSUN | FirstSun Capital Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.91 | 0.10 | 3.49 | (2.36) | 10.98 | |
| TCBI | Texas Capital Bancshares | (0.31) | 10 per month | 1.29 | 0.14 | 3.42 | (1.82) | 10.21 | |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.15 | 2.92 | (1.84) | 7.90 | |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.82 | 0.13 | 2.83 | (1.34) | 8.89 | |
| BHRB | Burke Herbert Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.49 | 0.09 | 3.16 | (2.37) | 9.50 | |
| FMBH | First Mid Illinois | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.14 | 3.52 | (1.45) | 9.25 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | 0.77 | 6 per month | 1.53 | 0.15 | 4.14 | (2.97) | 17.09 | |
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp | 0.07 | 10 per month | 1.74 | 0.04 | 3.59 | (2.21) | 11.43 | |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial | 0.67 | 8 per month | 1.23 | 0.13 | 2.86 | (2.04) | 9.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for Old Second
For every potential investor in Old, whether a beginner or expert, Old Second's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Old Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Old. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Old Second's price trends.Old Second Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Old Second stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Old Second could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Old Second by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Old Second Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Old Second stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Old Second shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Old Second stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Old Second Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4617.78 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.407407 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 20.97 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.29 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.38 |
Old Second Risk Indicators
The analysis of Old Second's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Old Second's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting old stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.19 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Old Second
The number of cover stories for Old Second depends on current market conditions and Old Second's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Old Second is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Old Second's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Old Second Short Properties
Old Second's future price predictability will typically decrease when Old Second's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Old Second Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Old Second's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old Second's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 196.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Second to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could Old diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Second. Anticipated expansion of Old directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Old Second data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Old Second Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Old's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Old Second's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Old Second's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Old Second's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Old Second should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Old Second's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.