Upstart Holdings Stock Performance
| UPST Stock | USD 45.92 0.63 1.39% |
Upstart Holdings has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 1.1, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Upstart Holdings returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Upstart Holdings is expected to follow. Upstart Holdings right now has a risk of 4.21%. Please validate Upstart Holdings value at risk, rate of daily change, as well as the relationship between the Rate Of Daily Change and relative strength index , to decide if Upstart Holdings will be following its existing price patterns.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weakest
Weak | Strong |
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Upstart Holdings are ranked lower than 2 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of comparatively weak basic indicators, Upstart Holdings may actually be approaching a critical reversion point that can send shares even higher in February 2026. ...more
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return (1.57) | Five Day Return (1.37) | Year To Date Return (1.40) | Ten Year Return 53.38 | All Time Return 53.38 |
1 | Disposition of tradable shares by Natalia Mirgorodskaya of Upstart Holdings at 36.95 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 11/24/2025 |
2 | Better Fintech Stock Chime Financial vs. Upstart | 12/12/2025 |
3 | Disposition of 7392 shares by Scott Darling of Upstart Holdings at 50.0 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/16/2025 |
4 | Block vs. Upstart Which Fintech Stock Has More Upside Right Now | 12/31/2025 |
5 | Disposition of 1000 shares by Scott Darling of Upstart Holdings at 50.0 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 01/05/2026 |
6 | Assessing Upstart Holdings Valuation After Strong Q3 AI Lending Growth And Profit Rebound | 01/07/2026 |
7 | 3 Growth Stocks to Invest 1,000 in Right Now | 01/09/2026 |
8 | Why Upstart Stock Lost 29 percent in 2025 | 01/12/2026 |
9 | Is SoFis Scalable Profitability the Key to Its Stronger 2025 Outlook | 01/15/2026 |
10 | Is Upstart Using Credit Union Partnerships to Strengthen Its AI Lending Funding Backbone | 01/16/2026 |
11 | Upstart Stock Is Up, What You Need To Know | 01/21/2026 |
12 | Acquisition by Scott Darling of 7564 shares of Upstart Holdings at 13.22 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 01/22/2026 |
13 | Rize Credit Union Partnership Might Change The Case For Investing In Upstart Holdings | 01/23/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 467.8 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | -237.7 M |
Upstart Holdings Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 4,496 in Upstart Holdings on October 30, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 96.00 from holding Upstart Holdings or generate 2.14% return on investment over 90 days. Upstart Holdings is currently generating 0.1228% in daily expected returns and assumes 4.2058% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 37% of stocks are less volatile than Upstart, and 98% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Upstart Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Upstart Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 45.92 | 90 days | 45.92 | about 45.57 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Upstart Holdings to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 45.57 (This Upstart Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Upstart Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.1 . This usually implies Upstart Holdings market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Upstart Holdings is expected to follow. Additionally Upstart Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Upstart Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Upstart Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Upstart Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Upstart Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Upstart Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Upstart Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Upstart Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Upstart Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Upstart Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Upstart Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Upstart Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Upstart Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Upstart Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Upstart Holdings has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 676.96 M. Net Loss for the year was (128.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 820.61 M. | |
| Over 75.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Lazard Valuation Check As CEO Inflation Warning Puts Interest Rate Outlook In The Spotlight |
Upstart Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Upstart Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Upstart Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Upstart Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 793.6 M |
Upstart Holdings Fundamentals Growth
Upstart Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Upstart Holdings, and Upstart Holdings fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Upstart Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | 0.0481 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0133 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.03 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.11 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 5.85 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 97.29 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 17.98 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 6.01 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 4.41 X | ||||
| Revenue | 676.96 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 820.61 M | ||||
| EBITDA | (107.85 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (128.58 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 683.97 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 8.35 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 1.45 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 1.42 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 21.37 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 7.64 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 186.33 M | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 0.26 X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 4.4 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 2.37 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (411.16 M) | ||||
About Upstart Holdings Performance
Assessing Upstart Holdings' fundamental ratios provides investors with valuable insights into Upstart Holdings' financial health and overall profitability. This information is crucial for making informed investment decisions. A high ROA would indicate that the Upstart Holdings is effectively leveraging its assets and equity to generate significant profits, making it an appealing investment. Conversely, low Return on Assets could signal underlying management issues in assets and equity, indicating a necessity for operational refinements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Return On Tangible Assets | (0.06) | (0.06) | |
| Return On Capital Employed | (0.07) | (0.07) | |
| Return On Assets | (0.06) | (0.06) | |
| Return On Equity | (0.23) | (0.22) |
Things to note about Upstart Holdings performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Upstart Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Upstart Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Upstart Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Upstart Holdings has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 676.96 M. Net Loss for the year was (128.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 820.61 M. | |
| Over 75.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Lazard Valuation Check As CEO Inflation Warning Puts Interest Rate Outlook In The Spotlight |
- Analyzing Upstart Holdings' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Upstart Holdings' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Upstart Holdings' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Upstart Holdings' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Upstart Holdings' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Upstart Holdings' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Upstart Holdings' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Additional Tools for Upstart Stock Analysis
When running Upstart Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Upstart Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Upstart Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Upstart Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Upstart Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Upstart Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Upstart Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.