Zto Express Stock Price Patterns
| ZTO Stock | USD 21.93 0.31 1.39% |
Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.069 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.9669 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.3088 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.4813 | Wall Street Target Price 23.8311 |
Using ZTO Express hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ZTO Express from the perspective of ZTO Express response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ZTO Express using ZTO Express' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ZTO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ZTO Express' stock price.
ZTO Express Short Interest
An investor who is long ZTO Express may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ZTO Express and may potentially protect profits, hedge ZTO Express with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 19.337 | Short Percent 0.0325 | Short Ratio 8.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 18.5 M | 50 Day MA 21.1636 |
ZTO Express Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ZTO Express' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ZTO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ZTO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ZTO Express. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ZTO Express' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ZTO Express.
ZTO Express Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
ZTO Express' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ZTO Express stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ZTO Express' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ZTO Express stock will not fluctuate a lot when ZTO Express' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ZTO Express to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ZTO because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ZTO Express after-hype prediction price | USD 21.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ZTO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ZTO Express will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.035% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ZTO Express trading at USD 21.93, that is roughly USD 0.007676 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ZTO Express' daily price movement you should consider acquiring ZTO Express options at the current volatility level of 0.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out ZTO Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ZTO Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ZTO Express After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ZTO Express at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ZTO Express or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ZTO Express, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ZTO Express Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ZTO Express' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ZTO Express' historical news coverage. ZTO Express' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.56 and 23.30, respectively. We have considered ZTO Express' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ZTO Express is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ZTO Express is based on 3 months time horizon.
ZTO Express Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ZTO Express is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ZTO Express backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ZTO Express, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.93 | 21.93 | 0.00 |
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ZTO Express Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January ZTO Express is traded for 21.93. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.28. ZTO is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on ZTO Express is about 128.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.21. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.88. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. ZTO Express has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.04. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of September 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out ZTO Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ZTO Express Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ZTO Express' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ZTO Express' future price movements. Getting to know how ZTO Express' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ZTO Express may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport | 1.00 | 8 per month | 0.77 | 0.19 | 3.32 | (1.54) | 6.61 | |
| EXPD | Expeditors International of | 2.89 | 11 per month | 0.61 | 0.24 | 2.46 | (1.63) | 13.29 | |
| XPO | XPO Logistics | 2.33 | 9 per month | 2.01 | 0.09 | 5.39 | (3.88) | 14.63 | |
| LTM | LATAM Airlines Group | 0.99 | 12 per month | 1.09 | 0.31 | 3.92 | (2.24) | 8.49 | |
| TXT | Textron | 2.42 | 9 per month | 1.57 | 0.04 | 2.26 | (1.64) | 11.43 | |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 0.69 | 12 per month | 0.44 | 0.23 | 3.08 | (1.70) | 22.91 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | (0.32) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.18 | (1.99) | 5.10 | |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | (2.89) | 9 per month | 1.74 | (0.02) | 4.11 | (2.75) | 8.62 | |
| WSO | Watsco Inc | 8.49 | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.03 | 4.05 | (2.21) | 7.55 | |
| WWD | Woodward | (4.92) | 7 per month | 1.28 | 0.11 | 3.42 | (2.14) | 16.03 |
ZTO Express Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ZTO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ZTO using various technical indicators. When you analyze ZTO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ZTO Express Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ZTO Express stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ZTO Express, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ZTO Express based on analysis of ZTO Express hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ZTO Express's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ZTO Express's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.017 | 0.0479 | 0.0431 | 0.0452 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.17 | 2.64 | 3.04 | 2.89 |
Pair Trading with ZTO Express
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ZTO Express position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ZTO Express will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with ZTO Stock
| 0.9 | FDX | FedEx | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | UPS | United Parcel Service | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | XPO | XPO Logistics Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | TTNM | Titanium Transportation | PairCorr |
| 0.96 | HUBG | Hub Group Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against ZTO Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ZTO Express could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ZTO Express when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ZTO Express - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ZTO Express to buy it.
The correlation of ZTO Express is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ZTO Express moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ZTO Express moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ZTO Express can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out ZTO Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in ZTO Stock, please use our How to Invest in ZTO Express guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Will Air Freight & Logistics sector continue expanding? Could ZTO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ZTO Express. Anticipated expansion of ZTO directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every ZTO Express data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.069 | Dividend Share 4.79 | Earnings Share 1.55 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.111 |
The market value of ZTO Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ZTO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ZTO Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ZTO Express' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because ZTO Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ZTO Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ZTO Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ZTO Express is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, ZTO Express' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.