First Merchants Stock Market Value
| FRMEP Stock | USD 25.53 0.18 0.71% |
| Symbol | First |
First Merchants Price To Book Ratio
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Merchants. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Dividend Share 1.38 | Earnings Share 3.81 | Revenue Per Share 10.11 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of First Merchants is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
First Merchants 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Merchants' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Merchants.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Merchants on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Merchants or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Merchants over 30 days. First Merchants is related to or competes with Heartland Financial, OceanFirst Financial, Old National, and Old National. First Merchants Corporation operates as the financial holding company for First Merchants Bank that provides community b... More
First Merchants Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Merchants' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Merchants upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.7785 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.47 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.9697 |
First Merchants Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Merchants' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Merchants' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Merchants historical prices to predict the future First Merchants' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0689 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0562 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.47) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Merchants Backtested Returns
Currently, First Merchants is very steady. First Merchants secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0878, which denotes the company had a 0.0878% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for First Merchants, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Merchants' Downside Deviation of 0.7785, coefficient of variation of 1061.73, and Mean Deviation of 0.3451 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0516%. First Merchants has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0955, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Merchants are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First Merchants is likely to outperform the market. First Merchants right now shows a risk of 0.59%. Please confirm First Merchants value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to decide if First Merchants will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.33 |
Poor reverse predictability
First Merchants has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Merchants time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Merchants price movement. The serial correlation of -0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current First Merchants price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
First Merchants lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Merchants stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Merchants' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Merchants returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Merchants has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Merchants regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Merchants stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Merchants stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Merchants stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Merchants Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Merchants' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Merchants stock have on its future price. First Merchants autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Merchants autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Merchants stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Merchants.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with First Merchants
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First Merchants position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Merchants will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with First Stock
| 0.66 | AX | Axos Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | BY | Byline Bancorp Fiscal Year End 23rd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | PB | Prosperity Bancshares Fiscal Year End 22nd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
Moving against First Stock
| 0.69 | WF | Woori Financial Group | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | TFC-PO | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | TFC-PR | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | CFG-PE | Citizens Financial | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to First Merchants could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace First Merchants when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back First Merchants - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling First Merchants to buy it.
The correlation of First Merchants is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as First Merchants moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if First Merchants moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for First Merchants can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.