American Woodmark Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMWD Stock | USD 61.44 2.64 4.12% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Woodmark on the next trading day is expected to be 65.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.96. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Woodmark stock prices and determine the direction of American Woodmark's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Woodmark's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of American Woodmark's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.2067 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.7067 | Wall Street Target Price 66 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.1967 |
Using American Woodmark hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Woodmark from the perspective of American Woodmark response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Woodmark using American Woodmark's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Woodmark's stock price.
American Woodmark Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in American Woodmark's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Woodmark stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 58.9027 | Short Percent 0.0623 | Short Ratio 4.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 795.5 K | 50 Day MA 55.6322 |
American Woodmark Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Woodmark's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Woodmark. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
American Woodmark Implied Volatility | 0.66 |
American Woodmark's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Woodmark stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Woodmark's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Woodmark stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Woodmark's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Woodmark on the next trading day is expected to be 65.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.96. American Woodmark after-hype prediction price | USD 61.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Woodmark to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Woodmark will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0413% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With American Woodmark trading at USD 61.44, that is roughly USD 0.0253 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Woodmark's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Woodmark options at the current volatility level of 0.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Woodmark's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Woodmark's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Woodmark stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Woodmark's open interest, investors have to compare it to American Woodmark's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Woodmark is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American Woodmark Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Woodmark Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the American Woodmark's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1986-04-30 | Previous Quarter 54.9 M | Current Value 52.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 48.9 M |
American Woodmark Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Woodmark on the next trading day is expected to be 65.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92, mean absolute percentage error of 5.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Woodmark's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Woodmark Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Woodmark | American Woodmark Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Woodmark Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Woodmark's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Woodmark's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 62.71 and 68.67, respectively. We have considered American Woodmark's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Woodmark stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Woodmark stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.6164 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9187 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.034 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 118.9605 |
Predictive Modules for American Woodmark
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Woodmark. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Woodmark's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Woodmark After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Woodmark at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Woodmark or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Woodmark, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Woodmark Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Woodmark's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Woodmark's historical news coverage. American Woodmark's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.40 and 64.36, respectively. We have considered American Woodmark's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Woodmark is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Woodmark is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Woodmark Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Woodmark is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Woodmark backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Woodmark, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.98 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
61.44 | 61.38 | 0.10 |
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American Woodmark Hype Timeline
American Woodmark is presently traded for 61.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. American is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 61.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on American Woodmark is about 884.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 61.45. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.96. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Woodmark has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.46. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of June 2011. The firm had 2:1 split on the 27th of September 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Woodmark to cross-verify your projections.American Woodmark Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Woodmark's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Woodmark's future price movements. Getting to know how American Woodmark's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Woodmark may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LGIH | LGI Homes | (0.47) | 10 per month | 2.62 | 0.04 | 9.13 | (5.06) | 17.70 | |
| ETD | Ethan Allen Interiors | 0.65 | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.14 | (2.76) | 11.63 | |
| MLKN | MillerKnoll | 0.20 | 26 per month | 2.03 | 0.08 | 4.63 | (3.96) | 11.89 | |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | 0.20 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.07 | (2.25) | 7.22 | |
| XPEL | Xpel Inc | 0.36 | 10 per month | 1.34 | 0.29 | 4.45 | (2.59) | 11.45 | |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding | (0.14) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.90 | (5.07) | 28.69 | |
| LEG | Leggett Platt Incorporated | 0.20 | 4 per month | 1.84 | 0.13 | 5.34 | (3.35) | 20.61 | |
| ODP | ODP Corp | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.65 | (0.39) | 33.52 | |
| ACEL | Accel Entertainment | (0.34) | 8 per month | 1.35 | 0.04 | 2.73 | (1.96) | 7.30 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | 2.72 | 7 per month | 6.50 | 0.01 | 16.00 | (10.24) | 42.23 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Woodmark
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Woodmark's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Woodmark's price trends.American Woodmark Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Woodmark stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Woodmark could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Woodmark by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Woodmark Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Woodmark stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Woodmark shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Woodmark stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Woodmark entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2336.87 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.97) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 62.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 62.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.45) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.64) |
American Woodmark Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Woodmark's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Woodmark's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Variance | 8.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Woodmark
The number of cover stories for American Woodmark depends on current market conditions and American Woodmark's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Woodmark is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Woodmark's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Woodmark Short Properties
American Woodmark's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Woodmark's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Woodmark often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Woodmark's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Woodmark's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Woodmark to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Building Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Woodmark. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Woodmark listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | Earnings Share 4.07 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) | Return On Assets |
The market value of American Woodmark is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Woodmark's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Woodmark's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Woodmark's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Woodmark's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Woodmark's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Woodmark is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Woodmark's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.