American Woodmark Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AMWD Stock | USD 57.97 0.65 1.11% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Woodmark stock prices and determine the direction of American Woodmark's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Woodmark's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of American Woodmark's share price is approaching 47. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling American Woodmark, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using American Woodmark hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Woodmark from the perspective of American Woodmark response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Woodmark on the next trading day is expected to be 57.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.02. American Woodmark after-hype prediction price | USD 57.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Woodmark to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.American Woodmark Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Woodmark Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Woodmark on the next trading day is expected to be 57.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 3.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Woodmark's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Woodmark Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Woodmark | American Woodmark Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Woodmark Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Woodmark's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Woodmark's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.85 and 60.91, respectively. We have considered American Woodmark's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Woodmark stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Woodmark stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1891 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2207 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0217 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 72.0212 |
Predictive Modules for American Woodmark
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Woodmark. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Woodmark's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Woodmark After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Woodmark at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Woodmark or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Woodmark, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Woodmark Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Woodmark's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Woodmark's historical news coverage. American Woodmark's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.96 and 60.98, respectively. We have considered American Woodmark's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Woodmark is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Woodmark is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Woodmark Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Woodmark is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Woodmark backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Woodmark, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 3.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
57.97 | 57.97 | 0.00 |
|
American Woodmark Hype Timeline
American Woodmark is presently traded for 57.97. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.06. American is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Woodmark is about 456.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.03. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.92. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Woodmark has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.46. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of June 2011. The firm had 2:1 split on the 27th of September 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Woodmark to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.American Woodmark Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Woodmark's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Woodmark's future price movements. Getting to know how American Woodmark's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Woodmark may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LGIH | LGI Homes | 4.29 | 9 per month | 2.54 | 0.04 | 9.13 | (5.06) | 17.70 | |
| ETD | Ethan Allen Interiors | (0.28) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.14 | (2.76) | 11.63 | |
| MLKN | MillerKnoll | 0.51 | 23 per month | 1.77 | 0.13 | 4.63 | (3.16) | 11.89 | |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | (0.58) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.07 | (2.25) | 7.22 | |
| XPEL | Xpel Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.32 | 4.45 | (1.74) | 11.45 | |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding | (0.66) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.90 | (5.07) | 28.69 | |
| LEG | Leggett Platt Incorporated | 0.24 | 20 per month | 1.90 | 0.11 | 5.34 | (3.35) | 20.61 | |
| ODP | ODP Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.48) | 0.22 | (0.18) | 0.50 | |
| ACEL | Accel Entertainment | 0.40 | 10 per month | 1.31 | 0.02 | 2.73 | (1.96) | 7.30 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | 2.72 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 16.00 | (10.24) | 48.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Woodmark
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Woodmark's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Woodmark's price trends.American Woodmark Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Woodmark stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Woodmark could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Woodmark by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Woodmark Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Woodmark stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Woodmark shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Woodmark stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Woodmark entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Woodmark Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Woodmark's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Woodmark's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Variance | 9.06 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Woodmark
The number of cover stories for American Woodmark depends on current market conditions and American Woodmark's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Woodmark is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Woodmark's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
American Woodmark Short Properties
American Woodmark's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Woodmark's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Woodmark often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Woodmark's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Woodmark's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Woodmark to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could American diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Woodmark. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every American Woodmark data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate American Woodmark using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating American Woodmark's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause American Woodmark's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that American Woodmark's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether American Woodmark represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, American Woodmark's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.