City Holding Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CHCO Stock | USD 122.83 2.43 2.02% |
City Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although City Holding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of City Holding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of City Holding fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of City Holding's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling City Holding, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.129 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.124 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.938 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.34 | Wall Street Target Price 130.6 |
Using City Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of City Holding from the perspective of City Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards City Holding using City Holding's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards City using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of City Holding's stock price.
City Holding Short Interest
An investor who is long City Holding may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about City Holding and may potentially protect profits, hedge City Holding with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 121.8688 | Short Percent 0.0896 | Short Ratio 8.91 | Shares Short Prior Month 852.5 K | 50 Day MA 122.4862 |
City Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of City Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 122.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.33.City Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to City Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in City. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding City can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around City Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of City Holding's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about City Holding.
City Holding Implied Volatility | 0.32 |
City Holding's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of City Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if City Holding's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that City Holding stock will not fluctuate a lot when City Holding's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of City Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 122.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.33. City Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 122.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of City Holding to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current City contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that City Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.02% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With City Holding trading at USD 122.83, that is roughly USD 0.0246 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating City Holding's daily price movement you should consider acquiring City Holding options at the current volatility level of 0.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 City Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast City Holding's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in City Holding's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for City Holding stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current City Holding's open interest, investors have to compare it to City Holding's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of City Holding is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in City. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
City Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine City price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for City using various technical indicators. When you analyze City charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
City Holding Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the City Holding's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1989-09-30 | Previous Quarter 225.6 M | Current Value 101.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 140 M |
City Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of City Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 122.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.30, mean absolute percentage error of 2.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict City Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that City Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
City Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest City Holding | City Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
City Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting City Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. City Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 121.65 and 123.98, respectively. We have considered City Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of City Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent City Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0547 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3005 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 79.3322 |
Predictive Modules for City Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as City Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of City Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
City Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of City Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in City Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of City Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
City Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting City Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on City Holding's historical news coverage. City Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 121.70 and 124.04, respectively. We have considered City Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
City Holding is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of City Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
City Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as City Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading City Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with City Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.17 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
122.83 | 122.87 | 0.03 |
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City Holding Hype Timeline
City Holding is currently traded for 122.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. City is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 122.87 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 137.65%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on City Holding is about 125.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 122.88. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 392.11 M. Net Income was 117.1 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 315.57 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of City Holding to cross-verify your projections.City Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to City Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict City Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how City Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how City Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares | 1.96 | 39 per month | 1.29 | 0.01 | 3.66 | (2.50) | 7.37 | |
| NIC | Nicolet Bankshares | 1.87 | 7 per month | 1.53 | 0.06 | 2.95 | (2.78) | 13.07 | |
| OFG | OFG Bancorp | 1.38 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.02 | (2.00) | 12.38 | |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | 0.46 | 8 per month | 1.31 | 0.05 | 2.92 | (1.48) | 8.12 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | (0.22) | 8 per month | 0.73 | 0.14 | 2.67 | (1.75) | 8.20 | |
| SYBT | Stock Yards Bancorp | 0.18 | 10 per month | 1.41 | (0.02) | 3.29 | (1.87) | 9.60 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | 1.67 | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.09 | 3.41 | (1.67) | 7.18 | |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services | 1.74 | 10 per month | 1.26 | (0) | 2.79 | (1.83) | 9.13 | |
| CCB | Coastal Financial Corp | 0.19 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.33 | (4.67) | 10.11 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 0.08 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.46 | (2.96) | 7.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for City Holding
For every potential investor in City, whether a beginner or expert, City Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. City Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in City. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying City Holding's price trends.City Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with City Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of City Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing City Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
City Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how City Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading City Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying City Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify City Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
City Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of City Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in City Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting city stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8406 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Variance | 1.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for City Holding
The number of cover stories for City Holding depends on current market conditions and City Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that City Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about City Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of City Holding to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in City Stock, please use our How to Invest in City Holding guide.You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could City diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of City Holding. Projected growth potential of City fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every City Holding data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.129 | Dividend Share 3.32 | Earnings Share 8.93 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.108 |
Understanding City Holding requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects City's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what City Holding's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push City Holding's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between City Holding's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding City Holding should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, City Holding's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.