First National Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FXNC Stock | USD 26.35 0.59 2.29% |
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First National stock prices and determine the direction of First National Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First National's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of First National's stock price is about 62. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.725 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.58 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.35 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.51 | Wall Street Target Price 23.75 |
Using First National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First National Corp from the perspective of First National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First National Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 26.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.67. First National after-hype prediction price | USD 26.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First National to cross-verify your projections. First National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First National Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First National Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 26.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First National Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First National | First National Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.96 and 27.74, respectively. We have considered First National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9678 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0661 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2405 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0097 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.67 |
Predictive Modules for First National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First National Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First National's historical news coverage. First National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.94 and 27.72, respectively. We have considered First National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First National Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
First National Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.39 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
26.35 | 26.33 | 0.08 |
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First National Hype Timeline
First National Corp is currently traded for 26.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. First is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 26.33. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on First National is about 594.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.42. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.28. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First National Corp last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 2nd of May 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First National to cross-verify your projections.First National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First National's future price movements. Getting to know how First National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FRAF | Franklin Financial Services | 3.31 | 9 per month | 2.22 | 0.04 | 3.20 | (2.67) | 15.31 | |
| CBNA | Chain Bridge Bancorp | (0.25) | 9 per month | 2.20 | 0.05 | 3.33 | (4.46) | 10.70 | |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial | 0.34 | 7 per month | 1.32 | 0.03 | 2.61 | (1.96) | 9.58 | |
| EFSI | Eagle Financial Services | 0.14 | 21 per month | 1.02 | (0.01) | 2.36 | (1.65) | 5.83 | |
| VABK | Virginia National Bankshares | (0.69) | 9 per month | 1.52 | (0.01) | 3.27 | (2.28) | 8.40 | |
| FCCO | First Community | (0.24) | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.03 | 2.21 | (2.29) | 6.74 | |
| AVBH | Avidbank Holdings Common | (0.02) | 24 per month | 0.84 | 0.02 | 1.75 | (1.60) | 6.08 | |
| NKSH | National Bankshares | (0.09) | 7 per month | 1.12 | 0.18 | 4.17 | (1.66) | 7.44 | |
| OPBK | OP Bancorp | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.84 | (0) | 2.82 | (3.22) | 11.36 | |
| FUNC | First United | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.82 | 0 | 2.92 | (2.74) | 11.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for First National
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First National's price trends.First National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First National Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First National Risk Indicators
The analysis of First National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.962 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9481 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6241 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First National
The number of cover stories for First National depends on current market conditions and First National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First National to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could First diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First National. Market participants price First higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every First National data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.725 | Earnings Share 1.09 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.685 | Return On Assets |
Understanding First National Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects First's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what First National's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push First National's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, First National's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.