Lemonade Stock Forward View
| LMND Stock | USD 61.96 6.53 9.53% |
Lemonade Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lemonade stock prices and determine the direction of Lemonade's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Lemonade's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of Lemonade's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.43) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.35) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.64) | Wall Street Target Price 67.1111 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.70) |
Using Lemonade hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lemonade from the perspective of Lemonade response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lemonade using Lemonade's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lemonade using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lemonade's stock price.
Lemonade Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lemonade's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lemonade. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lemonade stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 55.8946 | Short Percent 0.211 | Short Ratio 5.35 | Shares Short Prior Month 13 M | 50 Day MA 79.9038 |
Lemonade Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lemonade on the next trading day is expected to be 51.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 184.26.Lemonade Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lemonade's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lemonade. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lemonade can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lemonade. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lemonade's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lemonade.
Lemonade Implied Volatility | 0.96 |
Lemonade's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lemonade stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lemonade's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lemonade stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lemonade's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lemonade on the next trading day is expected to be 51.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 184.26. Lemonade after-hype prediction price | USD 62.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lemonade to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lemonade contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lemonade will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.06% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Lemonade trading at USD 61.96, that is roughly USD 0.0372 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lemonade's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lemonade options at the current volatility level of 0.96%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Lemonade Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lemonade's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lemonade's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lemonade stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lemonade's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lemonade's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lemonade is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lemonade. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lemonade Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lemonade price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lemonade using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lemonade charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lemonade Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Lemonade's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-09-30 | Previous Quarter 377.5 M | Current Value 355.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 249.5 M |
Lemonade Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lemonade on the next trading day is expected to be 51.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.02, mean absolute percentage error of 15.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 184.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lemonade Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lemonade's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lemonade Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lemonade | Lemonade Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lemonade Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lemonade's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lemonade's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.11 and 56.77, respectively. We have considered Lemonade's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lemonade stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lemonade stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8537 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0206 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0388 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 184.2589 |
Predictive Modules for Lemonade
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lemonade. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lemonade After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lemonade at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lemonade or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lemonade, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lemonade Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lemonade's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lemonade's historical news coverage. Lemonade's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 57.50 and 67.16, respectively. We have considered Lemonade's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lemonade is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lemonade is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lemonade Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lemonade is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lemonade backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lemonade, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 4.83 | 0.37 | 0.35 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
61.96 | 62.33 | 0.60 |
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Lemonade Hype Timeline
Lemonade is now traded for 61.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.35. Lemonade is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 62.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 129.14%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.6%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Lemonade is about 139.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 61.61. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 526.5 M. Net Loss for the year was (202.2 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 343.1 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lemonade to cross-verify your projections.Lemonade Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lemonade's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lemonade's future price movements. Getting to know how Lemonade's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lemonade may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | 2.30 | 9 per month | 0.89 | 0.1 | 2.58 | (1.57) | 5.53 | |
| MCY | Mercury General | (0.89) | 10 per month | 1.07 | 0.08 | 2.18 | (1.94) | 5.74 | |
| WTM | White Mountains Insurance | (41.66) | 8 per month | 0.82 | 0.07 | 1.94 | (1.26) | 10.24 | |
| ALL | The Allstate | 5.26 | 8 per month | 1.69 | (0.02) | 2.30 | (2.37) | 8.07 | |
| FLG | Flagstar Financial | 0.54 | 6 per month | 1.06 | 0.15 | 4.62 | (2.07) | 9.48 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | (0.48) | 9 per month | 1.41 | (0.02) | 2.38 | (2.34) | 5.67 | |
| RDN | Radian Group | (0.25) | 9 per month | 1.66 | (0.04) | 2.85 | (2.41) | 10.62 | |
| HGTY | Hagerty | (0.23) | 10 per month | 1.69 | (0.03) | 3.27 | (2.37) | 11.27 | |
| LAZ | Lazard | 0.70 | 8 per month | 2.15 | 0.04 | 3.71 | (3.52) | 12.16 | |
| AHL | Aspen Insurance Holdings | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.61) | 0.22 | (0.14) | 0.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lemonade
For every potential investor in Lemonade, whether a beginner or expert, Lemonade's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lemonade Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lemonade. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lemonade's price trends.Lemonade Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lemonade stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lemonade could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lemonade by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lemonade Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lemonade stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lemonade shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lemonade stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lemonade entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 629904.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.69) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.9 | |||
| Day Median Price | 64.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 63.69 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (5.86) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (6.53) |
Lemonade Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lemonade's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lemonade's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lemonade stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.68 | |||
| Variance | 21.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lemonade
The number of cover stories for Lemonade depends on current market conditions and Lemonade's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lemonade is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lemonade's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lemonade Short Properties
Lemonade's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lemonade's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lemonade often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lemonade's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lemonade's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lemonade to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lemonade Stock refer to our How to Trade Lemonade Stock guide.You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Will Property & Casualty Insurance sector continue expanding? Could Lemonade diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lemonade. Expected growth trajectory for Lemonade significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Lemonade data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (2.37) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.422 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Lemonade requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Lemonade's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Lemonade's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Lemonade's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Lemonade's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lemonade represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Lemonade's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.