Mercantile Bank Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| MBWM Stock | USD 48.46 0.85 1.79% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mercantile Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 48.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.95. Mercantile Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Mercantile Bank's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Mercantile Bank's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Mercantile Bank fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Mercantile Bank's share price is above 70 as of now. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Mercantile, making its price go up or down. Momentum 77
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.201 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2775 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.425 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.41 | Wall Street Target Price 54 |
Using Mercantile Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mercantile Bank from the perspective of Mercantile Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Mercantile Bank using Mercantile Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Mercantile using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Mercantile Bank's stock price.
Mercantile Bank Short Interest
An investor who is long Mercantile Bank may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Mercantile Bank and may potentially protect profits, hedge Mercantile Bank with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 45.6293 | Short Percent 0.0153 | Short Ratio 3.13 | Shares Short Prior Month 214 K | 50 Day MA 46.5374 |
Mercantile Bank Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Mercantile Bank's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Mercantile. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Mercantile can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Mercantile Bank. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Mercantile Bank's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Mercantile Bank.
Mercantile Bank Implied Volatility | 0.7 |
Mercantile Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Mercantile Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Mercantile Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Mercantile Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when Mercantile Bank's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mercantile Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 48.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.95. Mercantile Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 48.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Mercantile | Build AI portfolio with Mercantile Stock |
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Mercantile Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Mercantile Bank's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Mercantile Bank's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Mercantile Bank stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Mercantile Bank's open interest, investors have to compare it to Mercantile Bank's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Mercantile Bank is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Mercantile. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Mercantile Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mercantile price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mercantile using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mercantile charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mercantile Bank Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mercantile Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 48.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77, mean absolute percentage error of 0.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mercantile Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mercantile Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mercantile Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mercantile Bank | Mercantile Bank Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mercantile Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mercantile Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mercantile Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.82 and 50.05, respectively. We have considered Mercantile Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mercantile Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mercantile Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9225 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7697 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.9537 |
Predictive Modules for Mercantile Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercantile Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercantile Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Mercantile Bank
For every potential investor in Mercantile, whether a beginner or expert, Mercantile Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mercantile Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mercantile. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mercantile Bank's price trends.Mercantile Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mercantile Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mercantile Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mercantile Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mercantile Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mercantile Bank's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mercantile Bank's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mercantile Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mercantile Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mercantile Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mercantile Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mercantile Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mercantile Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mercantile Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mercantile Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mercantile stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.27) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercantile Bank to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Mercantile Stock, please use our How to Invest in Mercantile Bank guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mercantile Bank. If investors know Mercantile will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mercantile Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.201 | Dividend Share 1.48 | Earnings Share 5.27 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 |
The market value of Mercantile Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mercantile that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mercantile Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mercantile Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mercantile Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mercantile Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mercantile Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mercantile Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mercantile Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.