Mercantile Bank Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| MBWM Stock | USD 51.16 2.15 4.03% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Mercantile Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 52.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.57. Mercantile Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Mercantile Bank's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Mercantile Bank's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Mercantile Bank fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Mercantile Bank's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.157 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2425 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.62 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.924 | Wall Street Target Price 56.6 |
Using Mercantile Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mercantile Bank from the perspective of Mercantile Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Mercantile Bank using Mercantile Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Mercantile using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Mercantile Bank's stock price.
Mercantile Bank Short Interest
An investor who is long Mercantile Bank may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Mercantile Bank and may potentially protect profits, hedge Mercantile Bank with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 45.9065 | Short Percent 0.0155 | Short Ratio 2.36 | Shares Short Prior Month 215.6 K | 50 Day MA 47.6056 |
Mercantile Bank Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Mercantile Bank's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Mercantile. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Mercantile can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Mercantile Bank. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Mercantile Bank Implied Volatility | 0.86 |
Mercantile Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Mercantile Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Mercantile Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Mercantile Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when Mercantile Bank's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Mercantile Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 52.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.57. Mercantile Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 52.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Mercantile contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Mercantile Bank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0538% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Mercantile Bank trading at USD 51.16, that is roughly USD 0.0275 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Mercantile Bank's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Mercantile Bank options at the current volatility level of 0.86%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Mercantile Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Mercantile Bank's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Mercantile Bank's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Mercantile Bank stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Mercantile Bank's open interest, investors have to compare it to Mercantile Bank's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Mercantile Bank is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Mercantile. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Mercantile Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mercantile price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mercantile using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mercantile charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mercantile Bank Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Mercantile Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 52.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mercantile Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mercantile Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mercantile Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mercantile Bank | Mercantile Bank Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mercantile Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mercantile Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mercantile Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.58 and 53.88, respectively. We have considered Mercantile Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mercantile Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mercantile Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2056 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.189 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6368 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0133 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.57 |
Predictive Modules for Mercantile Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercantile Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercantile Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercantile Bank After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mercantile Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mercantile Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mercantile Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mercantile Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mercantile Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mercantile Bank's historical news coverage. Mercantile Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 50.56 and 53.86, respectively. We have considered Mercantile Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mercantile Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mercantile Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mercantile Bank Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mercantile Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mercantile Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mercantile Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.65 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
51.16 | 52.21 | 0.15 |
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Mercantile Bank Hype Timeline
Mercantile Bank is now traded for 51.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.22. Mercantile is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 52.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Mercantile Bank is about 210.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 51.38. About 67.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.27. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Mercantile Bank has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.51. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.47. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of March 2026. Mercantile Bank had 105:100 split on the 19th of April 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercantile Bank to cross-verify your projections.Mercantile Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mercantile Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mercantile Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how Mercantile Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mercantile Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NBN | Northeast Bancorp | 6.18 | 9 per month | 1.93 | 0.14 | 4.10 | (3.72) | 12.35 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | 0.52 | 8 per month | 0.88 | 0.14 | 2.88 | (1.57) | 10.57 | |
| CCNE | CNB Financial | (0.62) | 8 per month | 0.65 | 0.14 | 3.41 | (1.52) | 7.01 | |
| AMTB | Amerant Bancorp | 0.17 | 10 per month | 1.68 | 0.12 | 3.95 | (3.67) | 7.58 | |
| HBT | Hbt Financial | 0.24 | 7 per month | 1.15 | 0.12 | 3.31 | (2.69) | 7.88 | |
| TRST | TrustCo Bank Corp | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.93 | 0.20 | 2.98 | (1.66) | 7.47 | |
| MCB | Metropolitan Bank Holding | (0.19) | 6 per month | 1.21 | 0.14 | 4.29 | (2.71) | 9.91 | |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares | 0.96 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.06 | 2.74 | (2.30) | 6.29 | |
| HBNC | Horizon Bancorp | (0.14) | 9 per month | 0.92 | 0.13 | 3.87 | (2.01) | 9.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mercantile Bank
For every potential investor in Mercantile, whether a beginner or expert, Mercantile Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mercantile Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mercantile. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mercantile Bank's price trends.Mercantile Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mercantile Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mercantile Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mercantile Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mercantile Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mercantile Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mercantile Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mercantile Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mercantile Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mercantile Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mercantile Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mercantile Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mercantile stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9516 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Variance | 2.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9055 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mercantile Bank
The number of cover stories for Mercantile Bank depends on current market conditions and Mercantile Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mercantile Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mercantile Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mercantile Bank Short Properties
Mercantile Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mercantile Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mercantile Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mercantile Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercantile Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercantile Bank to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Mercantile Stock, please use our How to Invest in Mercantile Bank guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mercantile Bank. If investors know Mercantile will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mercantile Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.157 | Dividend Share 1.5 | Earnings Share 5.47 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.101 |
The market value of Mercantile Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mercantile that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mercantile Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mercantile Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mercantile Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mercantile Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mercantile Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mercantile Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mercantile Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.