Origin Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| OBK Stock | 37.61 0.10 0.27% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Origin Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 35.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.17. Origin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Origin Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Origin Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Origin Bancorp fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Origin Bancorp's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8325 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.696 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.664 | Wall Street Target Price 43.4 |
Using Origin Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Origin Bancorp from the perspective of Origin Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Origin Bancorp using Origin Bancorp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Origin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Origin Bancorp's stock price.
Origin Bancorp Short Interest
An investor who is long Origin Bancorp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Origin Bancorp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Origin Bancorp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 35.3441 | Short Percent 0.0125 | Short Ratio 2.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 373.4 K | 50 Day MA 36.2562 |
Origin Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Origin Bancorp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Origin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Origin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Origin Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Origin Bancorp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Origin Bancorp.
Origin Bancorp Implied Volatility | 1.04 |
Origin Bancorp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Origin Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Origin Bancorp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Origin Bancorp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Origin Bancorp's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Origin Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 35.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.17. Origin Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 37.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Origin Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Origin Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Origin Bancorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Origin Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Origin Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Origin Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Origin Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Origin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Origin Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Origin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Origin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Origin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Origin Bancorp Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Origin Bancorp's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2017-12-31 | Previous Quarter 334.1 M | Current Value 626.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 172.7 M |
Origin Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Origin Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 35.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Origin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Origin Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Origin Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Origin Bancorp | Origin Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Origin Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Origin Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Origin Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.02 and 37.30, respectively. We have considered Origin Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Origin Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Origin Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1383 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.511 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.1687 |
Predictive Modules for Origin Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Origin Bancorp
For every potential investor in Origin, whether a beginner or expert, Origin Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Origin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Origin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Origin Bancorp's price trends.Origin Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Origin Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Origin Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Origin Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Origin Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Origin Bancorp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Origin Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Origin Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Origin Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Origin Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Origin Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Origin Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Origin Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Origin Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting origin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Prophet is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Origin Stock please use our How to buy in Origin Stock guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Bancorp. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 1.91 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) |
The market value of Origin Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.