Origin Bancorp Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OBK Stock | 44.18 1.35 3.15% |
Origin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Origin Bancorp's share price is above 70 as of now. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Origin, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Origin Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Origin Bancorp from the perspective of Origin Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Origin Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.26. Origin Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 44.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Origin Stock please use our How to buy in Origin Stock guide.Origin Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Origin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Origin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Origin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Origin Bancorp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Origin Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Origin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Origin Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Origin Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Origin Bancorp | Origin Bancorp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Origin Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Origin Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Origin Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.57 and 45.79, respectively. We have considered Origin Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Origin Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Origin Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3844 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1627 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4377 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.26 |
Predictive Modules for Origin Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Origin Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Origin Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Origin Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Origin Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Origin Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Origin Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Origin Bancorp's historical news coverage. Origin Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.57 and 45.79, respectively. We have considered Origin Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Origin Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Origin Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Origin Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Origin Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Origin Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Origin Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.18 | 44.18 | 0.00 |
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Origin Bancorp Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Origin Bancorp is traded for 44.18. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Origin is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on Origin Bancorp is about 2012.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.21. About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.06. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Origin Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2026. The entity had 1:3 split on the 23rd of July 2008. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Origin Stock please use our How to buy in Origin Stock guide.Origin Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Origin Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Origin Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Origin Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Origin Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.79 | 0.04 | 3.59 | (2.21) | 11.43 | |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.14 | 2.92 | (1.84) | 7.90 | |
| RBCAA | Republic Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.09 | 3.24 | (2.10) | 9.56 | |
| BFC | Bank First National | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.15 | 3.40 | (1.90) | 7.45 | |
| DCOM | Dime Community Bancshares | 0.80 | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.19 | 3.94 | (2.56) | 11.73 | |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.29 | 0.17 | 3.87 | (2.18) | 10.36 | |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.50 | 0.08 | 3.09 | (1.66) | 11.79 | |
| PFBC | Preferred Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.42 | (2.09) | 12.44 | |
| CNOB | ConnectOne Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.1 | 3.61 | (2.13) | 10.00 | |
| TCBI | Texas Capital Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.17 | 2.92 | (1.64) | 10.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Origin Bancorp
For every potential investor in Origin, whether a beginner or expert, Origin Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Origin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Origin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Origin Bancorp's price trends.Origin Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Origin Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Origin Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Origin Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Origin Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Origin Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Origin Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Origin Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Origin Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Origin Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Origin Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting origin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8567 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7339 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Origin Bancorp
The number of cover stories for Origin Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Origin Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Origin Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Origin Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Origin Stock please use our How to buy in Origin Stock guide.You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Bancorp. Anticipated expansion of Origin directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Origin Bancorp assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Origin Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Origin's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Origin Bancorp's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Origin Bancorp's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Origin Bancorp's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Origin Bancorp should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Origin Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.