ZTO Express Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ZTO Stock | USD 21.60 0.32 1.46% |
ZTO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although ZTO Express' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ZTO Express' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ZTO Express fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of ZTO Express' share price is at 54. This usually means that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ZTO Express, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.069 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.9669 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.2689 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.4683 | Wall Street Target Price 24.0393 |
Using ZTO Express hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ZTO Express from the perspective of ZTO Express response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ZTO Express using ZTO Express' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ZTO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ZTO Express' stock price.
ZTO Express Short Interest
An investor who is long ZTO Express may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ZTO Express and may potentially protect profits, hedge ZTO Express with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 19.2508 | Short Percent 0.0299 | Short Ratio 8.02 | Shares Short Prior Month 18.3 M | 50 Day MA 20.9428 |
ZTO Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ZTO Express on the next trading day is expected to be 21.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.65.ZTO Express Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ZTO Express' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ZTO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ZTO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ZTO Express. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ZTO Express' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ZTO Express.
ZTO Express Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
ZTO Express' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ZTO Express stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ZTO Express' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ZTO Express stock will not fluctuate a lot when ZTO Express' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ZTO Express on the next trading day is expected to be 21.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.65. ZTO Express after-hype prediction price | USD 21.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ZTO Express to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ZTO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ZTO Express will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ZTO Express trading at USD 21.6, that is roughly USD 0.007155 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ZTO Express' daily price movement you should consider acquiring ZTO Express options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 ZTO Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ZTO Express' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ZTO Express' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ZTO Express stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ZTO Express' open interest, investors have to compare it to ZTO Express' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ZTO Express is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ZTO. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ZTO Express Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ZTO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ZTO using various technical indicators. When you analyze ZTO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ZTO Express Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ZTO Express on the next trading day is expected to be 21.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ZTO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ZTO Express' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ZTO Express Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ZTO Express | ZTO Express Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ZTO Express Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ZTO Express' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ZTO Express' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.22 and 22.98, respectively. We have considered ZTO Express' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ZTO Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ZTO Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.2315 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0699 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2482 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.645 |
Predictive Modules for ZTO Express
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ZTO Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ZTO Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ZTO Express After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ZTO Express at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ZTO Express or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ZTO Express, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ZTO Express Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ZTO Express' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ZTO Express' historical news coverage. ZTO Express' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.22 and 22.98, respectively. We have considered ZTO Express' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ZTO Express is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ZTO Express is based on 3 months time horizon.
ZTO Express Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ZTO Express is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ZTO Express backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ZTO Express, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.60 | 21.60 | 0.00 |
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ZTO Express Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January ZTO Express is traded for 21.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.12. ZTO is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on ZTO Express is about 237.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.48. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.86. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. ZTO Express has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of September 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ZTO Express to cross-verify your projections.ZTO Express Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ZTO Express' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ZTO Express' future price movements. Getting to know how ZTO Express' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ZTO Express may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport | 1.00 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.15 | 3.32 | (1.54) | 6.61 | |
| EXPD | Expeditors International of | 2.02 | 10 per month | 0.75 | 0.19 | 2.46 | (2.00) | 13.29 | |
| XPO | XPO Logistics | (6.96) | 10 per month | 2.31 | 0.03 | 5.39 | (4.36) | 14.63 | |
| LTM | LATAM Airlines Group | 0.16 | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.30 | 3.92 | (2.24) | 8.49 | |
| TXT | Textron | (0.52) | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.1 | 2.26 | (1.64) | 4.67 | |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 3.33 | 9 per month | 0.61 | 0.17 | 2.87 | (1.70) | 22.91 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | 0.80 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.18 | (2.28) | 5.10 | |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | (7.90) | 8 per month | 1.67 | 0 | 4.11 | (2.75) | 8.62 | |
| WSO | Watsco Inc | (2.16) | 10 per month | 1.91 | (0.01) | 4.05 | (2.70) | 7.55 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 4.42 | 6 per month | 1.25 | 0.15 | 3.61 | (2.23) | 16.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for ZTO Express
For every potential investor in ZTO, whether a beginner or expert, ZTO Express' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ZTO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ZTO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ZTO Express' price trends.ZTO Express Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ZTO Express stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ZTO Express could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ZTO Express by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ZTO Express Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ZTO Express stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ZTO Express shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ZTO Express stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ZTO Express entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.16) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.32) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.6 |
ZTO Express Risk Indicators
The analysis of ZTO Express' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ZTO Express' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting zto stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9522 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9066 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ZTO Express
The number of cover stories for ZTO Express depends on current market conditions and ZTO Express' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ZTO Express is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ZTO Express' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ZTO Express Short Properties
ZTO Express' future price predictability will typically decrease when ZTO Express' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ZTO Express often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ZTO Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ZTO Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 838.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ZTO Express to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in ZTO Stock, please use our How to Invest in ZTO Express guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Air Freight & Logistics space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ZTO Express. If investors know ZTO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ZTO Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.069 | Dividend Share 4.79 | Earnings Share 1.55 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.111 |
The market value of ZTO Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ZTO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ZTO Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ZTO Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ZTO Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ZTO Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ZTO Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ZTO Express is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ZTO Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.